'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
Whether she will pare the fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP, using the record dividend received from the RBI, or expand flagship government programmes will be keenly watched.
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
'I believe that the overall demand for commercial vehicles will improve, even though there is a slowdown in the GDP.'
Headline growth was quite weak heading into the Covid period but averaged 6.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent in the five years between FY16 and FY20 for GVA and GDP respectively, points out Abhishek Upadhyay.
'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
Havells India, the country's largest listed consumer electrical company, reported a mixed performance in the 2024-25 (FY25) October-December quarter (Q3). While the top line benefited from festival demand, lower margins impacted operational performance.
The derivatives trading volume has seen a 37 per cent month-on-month decline in December following a slew of measures undertaken by the market regulator Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to curb the frenzy in the derivatives segment. The average daily turnover (ADTV) for the derivatives segment (notional turnover for options segment) so far this month is at Rs 280 trillion - the lowest since June 2023-compared to Rs 442 trillion in November.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
'Spending by the middle class is limited with a focus on savings. However, there is buoyancy at the top-end.'
Commercial banks in India reported a sixth consecutive year of rise in their net profits in 2023-24 while bad loans continued to fall, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) annual publication "Trends and Progress of Banking in India", released on Thursday. "Banks' profitability rose for the sixth consecutive year in 2023-24 and continued to rise in H1:2024-25 with the return on assets (RoA) at 1.4 per cent and return on equity (RoE) at 14.6 per cent," the report said.
The private sector's new project announcements in the quarter ending March were among the highest on record. The value of new private sector project announcements for the three months ending March 2024 was Rs 9.8 trillion, shows data from tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This is the second-highest on record in data going back to 2009.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
The stellar rise in corporate earnings in financial year 2021-22 (FY21) and FY22 did not result in a corresponding boom in capital expenditure (capex), with listed companies' investment in fixed assets rising just 2.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in FY22, growing at the slowest pace in the last six years. In comparison, the firms' combined net profit jumped 63.5 per cent YoY in FY22, while net sales increased 31.1 per cent - the fastest pace in over a decade. The 955 non-financial companies in Business Standard's sample reported combined net profit of Rs 7.18 trillion in FY22, compared with Rs 4.39 trillion in FY21 and Rs 2.59 trillion in FY20.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
'It has remained around 38 per cent over the past four to five quarters.'
'The estimated expenditure is expected to be more than double the Rs 60,000 crore spent in 2019'
Long-term macro trends indicate growth in demand for air travel. Trends from the ticketing website MakeMyTrip indicate a likely annual growth of between 11-17 per cent in Indian air travel demand over FY24-30. Through that period, InterGlobe Aviation or IndiGo may continue to make gains in market share in both domestic and international travel, aided by large fleet additions. IndiGo is the largest global customer of Airbus by far with 950 aircraft orders outstanding.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
The July-September quarter (Q2) results for 2024-25 (FY25) from the largest listed consumer electrical solutions companies, Havells India and Polycab India, followed similar trends, demonstrating robust revenue growth while falling short of profitability expectations. Both companies witnessed overall growth in the 16-30 per cent range, but margins declined by 130-290 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Although brokerages are bullish on long-term prospects and have raised revenue projections, earnings forecasts have been revised downward due to margin pressures.
Jefferies has identified 11 stocks set to benefit from long-term macro trends like capital expenditures, government manufacturing initiatives, and financialisation.
Shares of healthcare services major Max Healthcare Institute have gained over 23 per cent since the start of this month and the stock crossed the Rs 1 trillion mark on September 24. On September 25, it closed 989.85 apiece at the NSE. The gains were cornered on the back of a strong outlook for the sector and aggressive expansion plans for the chain led by acquisitions and organic growth.
The expectations of a borrowing cut by the government faded among bond-market participants after the general election results because they feel the compulsions of running a coalition may put pressure on the exchequer, according to dealers. The recent trend of moderate depreciation in the rupee's nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) might not persist if there are significant changes to the structural reform agenda.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
With Rs 17,087 crore raised so far this calendar year, the total is already 2.4 times that of the full year of 2023, which stood at Rs 7,266 crore.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
Toyota Kirloskar Motor (TKM) has reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 4,787 crore for 2023-24 (FY24) - more than three times the earnings recorded the previous year. This growth can be attributed to robust demand for its vehicles, particularly hybrid models and cross-badged cars from the Toyota-Suzuki alliance.
Almost all infrastructure ministries continued spending on capex throughout the lockdown, even as the Centre tried to maintain some semblance of economic normalcy.
Deputy Governor Michael Patra warned about the spillover effects of food inflation.
Reserve Bank on Thursday retained the growth and inflation projection at 7.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively for the current fiscal amid expectations of a normal monsoon. In its last bi-monthly monetary policy review in June, RBI had projected real GDP growth and retail inflation at the same.
Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
Recognising job creation for the youth as the foremost challenge for the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced a comprehensive Prime Minister's package to facilitate the employment and skilling of 41 million youth with a central outlay of Rs 2 trillion over the next five-year period. The package will consist of five schemes and initiatives - three focused on jobs and two on skilling.
'We have essentially tried to set out an agenda for the next five years and it, in essence, represents the political commitment to that agenda.'
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
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